{"id":114,"date":"2021-04-21T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-21T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/focus-on-what-you-can-control-when-markets-go-down\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T17:04:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T17:04:46","slug":"focus-on-what-you-can-control-when-markets-go-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/focus-on-what-you-can-control-when-markets-go-down\/","title":{"rendered":"Focus on What You Can Control: Preparing for When Markets Go Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/unsplash-image-ndmaGsIr6E4.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">I recently came across a personal finance Instagram account that looked different from all the others I follow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There were no motivational Tweets inexplicably shared as Instagram posts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There were no \u201c10% average return\u201d projections.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There weren\u2019t even the obligatory, \u201cStop spending all your money on takeout, you fat cow!\u201d posts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><em>(Can you see why personal finance corners of the internet need a makeover? I digress.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Often times in an effort to make things simpler and get people excited about investing, we often present half-truths or \u201cThis is true, <em>but only with this very important caveat<\/em>,\u201d statements in pithy, easily shareable ways (because #content, right?).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This account brought up the hard stuff: Inflation risk. Macroeconomic trends. What happens if you take index investing to its logical extreme, wherein everyone becomes a passive index investor, and suddenly the market starts acting crazy because it\u2019s theoretically \u201cprice-insensitive.\u201d (Oddly enough,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/ideas\/archive\/2021\/04\/the-autopilot-economy\/618497\/\"> <span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">the Atlantic just wrote a piece about this very topic<\/span><\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u2026when I tell you I spent the entire rest of that Saturday laying on the couch, staring at the ceiling, and questioning everything I believe, I\u2019m not exaggerating.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Why this knowledge presented this way sent my assumptions into a tailspin<\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">For starters, I consider myself pretty well-read \u2013 I\u2019ve probably churned through 10-12 personal finance books in the last few years, and spent an equal amount of time listening to podcasts, verifying my strategies using sources like NerdWallet and Investopedia, and <em>simply talking to other personal finance nerds<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The idea that some giant, unnoticed macroeconomic trend could blow up my entire plan (or, more specifically, that I\u2019d have to become an economist to understand what to do) <strong>utterly freaked me out<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Upon further research, I know it was just the accumulation of <em>all <\/em>the potential worst case scenarios in one spot that sent me over the edge \u2013 that feeling of, \u201cShit, do I know ANYTHING?\u201d But in reality, a lot of the topics broached were still in my realm of awareness already \u2013 they just weren\u2019t the front-and-center focuses of my personal finance knowledge repertoire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And in full transparency, I, too, get frustrated by some big personal finance accounts who paint half-truths and generalizations as cold, hard facts. The underpinning of that frustration isn\u2019t fair, though, because it assumes that those accounts\u2019 followers aren\u2019t fully competent adults, capable of doing their own research and making decisions for themselves.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">How I reasoned my way through some of these big \u201cdoom and gloom\u201d personal finance topics<\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">My biggest takeaway was this:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">You have to focus on what you can control, because you have very little control over market returns and inflation. You <em>can<\/em> control for (a) your own tax liability and the tax \u201cdrag\u201d on your portfolio, and (b) your diversification.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Of course, the other obvious thing you can control is increasing your save rate. Even if, for some reason, the market has horrifically low returns over the next two decades, you can help offset that pain by keeping your living expenses low (read: reasonable) and saving more of your income.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Because after all, the people who are truly relying on an everlasting 13.3% S&amp;P 500 return (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/personal-finance\/average-stock-market-return\" target=\"_blank\">the average annualized rate of return over the last 10 years<\/a>) are those who may not be saving very aggressively in the first place.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Controlling your tax liability<\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This is a huge one. And really, there are only a few major (legal) ways to control how much you\u2019re paying in taxes:<\/p>\n<ul data-rte-list=\"default\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Contributing to a pre-tax 401(k) to defer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irs.gov\/newsroom\/401k-limit-increases-to-23000-for-2024-ira-limit-rises-to-7000#:~:text=Highlights%20of%20changes%20for%202024,to%20%247%2C000%2C%20up%20from%20%246%2C500.\" target=\"_blank\">up to $23,500 per year<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Contributing to a Roth IRA to get money in an account that\u2019ll never be taxed again, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irs.gov\/newsroom\/401k-limit-increases-to-23000-for-2024-ira-limit-rises-to-7000#:~:text=Highlights%20of%20changes%20for%202024,to%20%247%2C000%2C%20up%20from%20%246%2C500.\" target=\"_blank\">up to $7,000 per year<\/a> (post-tax money, but amazing tax-free growth potential)<\/p>\n<ul data-rte-list=\"default\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">I often get asked what the point is of investing in a Roth IRA instead of just going straight to taxable investing, since your contributions are taxed in your marginal tax bracket for both (theoretically) \u2013 the difference over decades can be significant, so it\u2019s definitely worth it to consider maximizing that Roth IRA goodness<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Contributing to other pre-tax accounts that are a little less common but great if you can get them<\/p>\n<ul data-rte-list=\"default\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fidelity.com\/learning-center\/smart-money\/hsa-contribution-limits\" target=\"_blank\">The HSA<\/a> ($4,300 per year)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The SEP IRA or Solo 401(k), if you\u2019re self-employed (I think the Solo 401(k) is superior, for reasons I detail<a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneywithkatie.com\/blog\/tax-advantaged-retirement-investing-for-the-self-employed-sep-iras-and-solo-401ks\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\"> here<\/span><\/a>)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Here\u2019s the thing \u2013 you can save <strong>thousands of dollars per year<\/strong>, every single year, by leveraging accounts like these. And as they grow, you\u2019re likely to see your savings increase exponentially over time (since the \u201ctax drag\u201d on your investments compounds just like growth does).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Consider this hypothetical:<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Hot Girl Heather makes $120,000 per year. She\u2019s probably a corporate big shot or works in medical device sales or has some other, high-paying Hot Girl career.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Heather\u2019s taxable income is $105,000 (after she shaves off her generous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nerdwallet.com\/article\/taxes\/standard-deduction#:~:text=%2420%2C800.-,Standard%20deduction%202024,%2421%2C900%20for%20heads%20of%20household.&amp;text=%2414%2C600.\" target=\"_blank\">standard deduction<\/a>), which makes her marginal tax rate 22%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That means \u2013 if she maxes out her 401(k) at $23,500 and her HSA at $4,300 per year \u2013 she can potentially avoid paying taxes on $27,800 of her income.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The $23,500 is invested, and so is the $4,300 (if you opt to invest within your HSA, which is pretty standard).<\/p>\n<p class=\"sqsrte-large\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">By leveraging pre-tax accounts, Hot Girl Heather could offset investment losses (in a down market). <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And that\u2019s just by contributing to accounts that she keeps! Remember, you\u2019re really just paying yourself (through some fancy tax footwork) instead of taking all the money as big, dumb cash payouts. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">While the tax code could change and they could theoretically eliminate tax-deferred accounts, it\u2019s not likely (in this reporter\u2019s opinion) \u2013&nbsp;and controlling, to some degree, how much you pay in taxes has a direct impact on your bottom line <em>and <\/em>it\u2019s within your control, unlike what the market does or how inflationary trends go.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Diversifying your investments<\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">A lot of my favorite FI minds claim that VTSAX is the only index fund you need, because it represents the entire stock market.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">While that\u2019s true, it\u2019s also one of those things that requires a slight disclaimer: <em>The index fund is cap-weighted. <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">I posted recently about what \u201ccap weighting\u201d means \u2013&nbsp;but all you need to know for now is, big companies get preference.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sqsrte-large\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">An analogy that only gives me slight high school PTSD<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Let\u2019s go back in time to your high school. I want you to imagine your graduating class.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now, imagine the five most popular kids you knew. Everyone thought they were cool. If your high school graduating class was a stock market, they\u2019d be the hot stocks everyone was investing in (read: talking about, worshipping, and betting on). <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now let\u2019s pretend someone made an index fund that represented an interest in every single kid in your high school graduating class. The jocks, the nerds, the art kids, the popular girls \u2013&nbsp;everyone is represented. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><em>As if the NASDAQ looked like this.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PwKLjeq9j3Q\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u201cCap-weighting\u201d means the popular kids get preference.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">So if your popular girls were Brittany, Britney, Britneigh, and Britnay, the four B\u2019s would make up about 20% of the entire fund\u2019s value. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That\u2019s right! Four girls make up almost a quarter of the index fund that represents your high school graduating class. The rest of you (maybe you graduated with, say, 2,000 kids) would make up the other 80%, in decreasing order of popularity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sqsrte-large\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now, JL Collins would probably say that\u2019s a good thing<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">He\u2019d say, \u201cWell, that means you\u2019re only getting the winners! It\u2019s self-cleansing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Eh, kind of.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There have been periods of time (in\u2026 the lunchroom) where the popular kids didn\u2019t do so well.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">It\u2019d be like if Regina George\u2019s \u201csweatpants are the only thing that fits me right now\u201d phase lasted from 2000 to 2009, and during that time, Cady Heron had her massive come-up. She\u2019s a small cap value fund \u2013 unexpected and ready to take over the index using nothing but a tank top and three candy canes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Making sure you\u2019re diversifying properly is a really great way to help protect yourself from periods where the popular kids go bunk.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This is a really dense and involved investing topic that\u2019s \u2013 candidly \u2013 out of my depth, but one thing to know is that using a roboadvisor can help diversify your funds <em>within the stock market <\/em>for you.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now, you could make a case for things like cryptocurrency, gold, or other assets that are outside of \u201cthe stock market\u201d (like investing in a drummer who goes to a public school in a different zip code \u2013 total wild card), but again, I\u2019m not here to make investment recommendations \u2013 just to tell you that diversification beyond the \u201ctwo funds for life\u201d method (VTSAX or its equivalent and a total bond fund) may make things more complicated, but it\u2019ll also (likely) offer some protection from \u201cdown markets\u201d because it scatters your eggs in more baskets.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Conclusions<\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">By investing in your 401(k) (or equivalent employer-sponsored account) and a Roth IRA first, you can avoid a tax drag. The fact of the matter is, there\u2019s very little you actually have control over (in investing, and life in general).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Sometimes, the realization and acknowledgment that you aren\u2019t in control is oddly comforting \u2013 because beyond things like tax management and diversification, there\u2019s not a lot you can do \u2013 even if you\u2019re willing to work hard!<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">But the stock market is still a great tool we have to (passively, near-effortlessly) build wealth, and while we may not always see returns in the double digits for multiple years in a row, I have to think something that represents our very capitalist engine (and all the work of the people inside it) is destined to \u2013 over the decades \u2013 come out ahead. It has, at least, for the last century.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Of course, the last thing you should prep for is this: The inevitable drop will come. <strong>You have to psychologically prepare yourself.<\/strong> We all do. When things start to go down (before they generally go back up, eventually), you have to find the steely resolve that you won\u2019t flinch and sell.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And usually, that\u2019s the hardest part.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I recently came across a personal finance Instagram account that looked different from all the others I follow. There were no motivational Tweets inexplicably shared as Instagram posts. There were no \u201c10% average return\u201d projections. There weren\u2019t even the obligatory, \u201cStop spending all your money on takeout, you fat cow!\u201d posts. (Can you see why [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178814,"featured_media":2435,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"si-template-single-post-taxable-investing.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-and-taxes","tag-taxable-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Focus on What You Can Control: Preparing for When Markets Go Down - Money with Katie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/focus-on-what-you-can-control-when-markets-go-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Focus on What You Can Control: Preparing for When Markets Go Down - Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I recently came across a personal finance Instagram account that looked different from all the others I follow. 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There were no motivational Tweets inexplicably shared as Instagram posts. There were no \u201c10% average return\u201d projections. There weren\u2019t even the obligatory, \u201cStop spending all your money on takeout, you fat cow!\u201d posts. 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